Global Market Insights | Alister Hibbert

MARKET PERSPECTIVES

Investment Research & Analysis

Institutional-grade commentary distilling complex global dynamics into actionable investment frameworks. Each perspective reflects deep fundamental research combined with macro-thematic overlay.

15 MARCH 2025

The Structural Shift in Global Equities

We are witnessing a generational regime change in equity markets. The transition from a decade of low rates and passive dominance to an environment of structurally higher nominal growth fundamentally alters the return landscape. Active managers who understand capital cycle dynamics and can identify mispriced duration are positioned to capture outsized alpha.

MACRO

28 FEBRUARY 2025

AI & Technology: Beyond the Hype Cycle

The investment thesis for artificial intelligence has evolved beyond the initial semiconductor capex wave. The critical question now centres on enterprise adoption curves, monetisation timelines, and which companies possess genuine data moats. We focus on the infrastructure layer and vertical-specific applications where competitive advantages are durable and margins defensible.

TECHNOLOGY

10 JANUARY 2025

European Renaissance: Opportunities in Dislocation

European equities remain profoundly under-owned by global allocators, trading at historically wide valuation discounts to US markets. Yet beneath the index level, a cohort of globally competitive European companies is executing structurally improved capital allocation, margin expansion, and returns on equity that the market systematically undervalues.

EUROPE

18 DECEMBER 2024

Emerging Market Alpha in a Fragmenting World

Geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain diversification are catalysing a structural reallocation of capital across emerging markets. The distinction between nations benefiting from friend-shoring tailwinds and those exposed to trade reorientation risks creates a dispersion environment rich in alpha opportunity for bottom-up stock selection.

EMERGING MARKETS

22 NOVEMBER 2024

The New Era of Monetary Policy

Central bank frameworks are being fundamentally recalibrated in the post-pandemic era. The interplay between persistent services inflation, fiscal expansion, and evolving neutral rate estimates creates an environment where the traditional central bank put is structurally weakened. This repricing of the policy reaction function has profound implications for equity duration and sector rotation.

MONETARY POLICY

05 OCTOBER 2024

Energy Transition: Investment Implications

The energy transition is not a linear narrative but a complex, multi-decade capital reallocation cycle. We see compelling opportunities across the value chain, from grid infrastructure and industrial electrification to critical minerals and next-generation storage. Crucially, traditional energy companies with disciplined capital returns remain mispriced against the reality of the transition timeline.

ENERGY

THEMATIC FOCUS AREAS

Current Investment Themes

Our thematic research process identifies structural inflection points where consensus expectations diverge materially from fundamental reality. These are not short-term tactical tilts, but multi-year investment frameworks anchored in deep sectoral expertise and rigorous scenario analysis.

The current macro environment favours a barbell approach: combining high-quality compounders with proven pricing power alongside deeply cyclical opportunities where the market has over-discounted downside risk. We place particular emphasis on businesses with embedded optionality that is not reflected in current valuations.

Cross-regional dispersion remains elevated, creating fertile ground for active managers who can arbitrage informational asymmetries between local market knowledge and global capital flow dynamics. Our on-the-ground research network across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets provides a differentiated perspective that purely quantitative approaches cannot replicate.

Capital Cycles Pricing Power Margin Inflection Duration Repricing Reshoring Grid Infrastructure Data Moats Fiscal Impulse

"The best investment insights emerge at the intersection of variant perception and structural change. When the market anchors to a consensus narrative, the opportunity lies in understanding what the consensus is failing to price."

Alister Hibbert

MACRO INDICATORS

Global Macro Dashboard

High-level assessment of the key macro variables shaping the investment landscape and informing portfolio construction decisions.

01 / GROWTH

Global GDP Outlook

Synchronised deceleration giving way to a bifurcated recovery. US resilience contrasts with European stagnation, while Asian growth momentum is stabilising around structural trend rates. The dispersion of outcomes across regions favours selective allocation.

02 / INFLATION

Inflation Trajectory

Headline disinflation masks persistent services stickiness and shelter cost pressures. The structural drivers of the post-2008 disinflationary regime, including globalisation and labour surplus, are reversing. Expect a higher equilibrium inflation range across developed markets.

03 / POLICY

Central Bank Direction

The easing cycle is proceeding cautiously, with central banks navigating between growth preservation and inflation credibility. Terminal rates are likely to settle above pre-pandemic levels, fundamentally resetting the discount rate framework for all asset classes.

04 / VOLATILITY

Market Volatility

Realised volatility remains suppressed relative to the elevated macro uncertainty. The compression of risk premia and the structural short volatility positioning across the system create fragility. We view bouts of volatility as opportunities to deploy capital into dislocated names.

CONVICTION FRAMEWORK

High-Conviction Investment Themes

The themes that anchor our portfolio construction and guide capital allocation across regions and sectors. Each represents a multi-year structural thesis with identifiable catalysts.

THEME 01

Physical World Infrastructure

Decades of under-investment in grid capacity, transportation networks, and industrial infrastructure are colliding with accelerating demand from electrification and data centre buildout. Companies enabling this capex super-cycle offer durable, visible earnings growth.

High Conviction Multi-Year

THEME 02

European Capital Returns

European corporates are undergoing a quiet revolution in shareholder return policies. Buyback yields across the continent have reached record levels while dividend growth exceeds earnings growth, reflecting a structural improvement in capital discipline and governance.

Structural Change Under-Owned

THEME 03

Defence & Security Repricing

The geopolitical landscape has structurally shifted defence spending trajectories across NATO nations. Multi-year procurement cycles and technology modernisation programmes provide long-duration earnings visibility that the market has only partially discounted.

Secular Growth Policy Driven

THEME 04

Healthcare Innovation

The GLP-1 revolution and advances in oncology are reshaping healthcare economics globally. We focus on companies with differentiated pipelines and platform technologies where clinical catalysts offer asymmetric payoff profiles relative to current consensus expectations.

Catalyst Driven Innovation

THEME 05

Japan Governance Reform

The Tokyo Stock Exchange corporate governance reforms are catalysing a multi-year re-rating of Japanese equities. Companies unwinding cross-shareholdings, improving ROE targets, and enhancing shareholder returns represent a structural opportunity that foreign investors are only beginning to recognise.

Re-Rating Governance

THEME 06

Critical Minerals & Supply Security

The electrification imperative and supply chain nationalism are converging to create structural demand tailwinds for critical minerals. Companies with tier-one assets and permitting advantages in friendly jurisdictions command scarcity premiums that the market underappreciates.

Supply Constrained Strategic

Navigating Complexity Across Global Markets